“Is now a good time to buy?” is the question I am asked more than any other, and it is rarely the right place to start. The honest answer in 2026 is that conditions have shifted in ways the headlines are not capturing. The market has cooled, money has become more expensive again, and the rules that govern how property is taxed may be about to change for the first time in a generation. None of that makes it a good or a bad time to buy. It makes it a time to be deliberate.
Where the market actually sits
Through the first half of 2026 the national market has slowed noticeably. Cotality’s Home Value Index recorded national growth of just 0.3% in April, the slowest pace since January 2025, with Sydney and Melbourne both easing 0.6% over the month while Perth continued to run ahead at 2.1% (Cotality, May 2026). Auction clearance rates have held below 55% since late March, and sales volumes are down on a year ago. This is not a market falling over. It is a market catching its breath.
The cause is not mysterious. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate three times in the first part of the year, in February, March and May, taking it to 4.35% before holding there in June (RBA). Higher rates reduce borrowing capacity, and reduced borrowing capacity cools prices. That is the cycle doing exactly what the cycle does.
The variable most buyers are underweighting: tax
The larger story for investors sits in the 2026 Federal Budget. On 12 May the Government announced the most significant changes to residential property taxation in decades. From 1 July 2027, the 50% capital gains tax discount for individuals would be replaced by cost-base indexation plus a 30% minimum tax rate on gains, and negative gearing on established residential property bought after Budget night would be limited, with the concession preserved for new builds (ATO).
Two points matter before anyone reacts. First, this is not law. The bills were introduced to Parliament on 28 May and referred to a Senate committee due to report at the end of June, and important detail is still being settled, including the definition of a “new dwelling”. The final shape may differ from the announcement, and property already held before Budget night is grandfathered under the existing rules. Second, the design deliberately tilts the incentive toward new supply. For an investor, that quietly changes the question from when to buy to what to buy.
The best years in property have a habit of arriving when confidence is lowest. The discipline is to be ready for them, not to chase them.
Why “is it a good time” is the wrong question
You never buy the market. You buy one property, in one location, for one strategy, at one point in your own financial life. The national index tells you almost nothing about whether a specific purchase suits your borrowing position, your holding capacity and your timeframe. Two investors can look at the same month and reach opposite, equally correct, decisions.
There is also a quieter advantage in a softer market. When sentiment falls and competition thins, prepared buyers have more room to negotiate and far less to fear. The investors who do well over a decade are rarely the ones who picked the bottom. They are the ones who were ready, on a clear plan, when others were waiting for a certainty that never quite arrives.
What should actually move your timeline
- Your borrowing capacity at 4.35%: tested honestly, with a buffer, not at the limit a lender will allow.
- Your holding costs: whether you can comfortably carry the property if rates stay higher for longer, before any rent comes in.
- What you buy, not just when: new and established stock may soon carry different tax consequences, subject to the legislation passing.
- Your strategy and timeframe: a considered ten-year hold is barely affected by which month you buy in.
The disciplined approach
The answer to “is it a good time” is almost always “it depends on you, and on what you buy.” That is not a deflection. It is the whole point. A purchase that fits your borrowing position, your cash flow and a clear long-term plan can make sense in a flat market or a hot one. A purchase that does not fit will struggle in either. This is exactly what a structured portfolio review is designed to test before you commit, and where working with an accredited advisor earns its keep.
Cooling prices, higher rates and a shifting tax landscape are not reasons to freeze. They are reasons to be precise. That is what disciplined, informed property investment looks like in 2026, and it is what tends to produce results when others are still waiting for the all-clear.
Apply this to your position
If you would like to understand how the current market and the proposed tax changes apply to your own position, we would be happy to walk you through it.
For investors looking to make informed decisions in a shifting market, professional guidance can make a meaningful difference.
This article has been prepared for general informational and educational purposes by ASPIRE Property Advisor Network. It does not constitute personal financial, taxation or legal advice and does not take into account any individual’s circumstances. Market data is sourced from Cotality (Home Value Index, May 2026) and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Proposed tax changes are as announced in the 2026 Federal Budget and described by the ATO, and were not yet law at the time of writing. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.